The EU migration problem has become a catalyst for centrifugal processes, as it has affected the basic ideological and political principles of solidarity, unity and democracy. If translated from a near-scientific language, a crisis of ideas and actions is obvious. The conflict between A. Merkel and H. Seehofer in Germany is not only a sign of the end of A. Merkel’s political career as chancellor, but also means the end of the hospitality policy, which resulted in a massive influx of migrants in 2014-2015.

The appearance in the near future of 20-40 million migrants who are aimed at moving to Europe from Africa (the largest growth is Sahel Chad, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mali) and the Islamic East (Bangladesh, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen) allows us to say that the European political model expects an inevitable end.

Only three scenarios are possible:
1) “besieged fortress” – control of approaches to space, strict border procedures, counteraction to the traffic of migrants up to the execution and escort of ships;
2) delivery of positions. In this case, the Europeans will inevitably change their own identity, Islamize all aspects of life, a sharp decline in living standards and radicalize the criminal situation;
 3) the appearance of the ghetto on a national and religious basis.

As a matter of fact, we are witnessing the crisis of the upper and lower classes in the EU, when politicians are not able to offer a satisfactory solution to the migration problem based on the formulas of free and open migration, and the lower classes do not want to put up with the situation. The problem is exacerbated by the powerful migrant lobby, which makes a lot of money from transporting, arranging and employing migrants. In fact, the EU is using its resources in the interests of an alliance of political and criminal groups. And we say – it is here that the weak link is due to which the movement of the so-called right-populist resistance is gaining influence dangerously and rapidly. The left, disconnected and accusing each other of opportunism, has so far nothing to offer Europeans. It remains to observe the approach of a hard turn, which will lead to the creation of an alliance of “right-wing populists” of the old and new Europe through a direct rise to power, or building blocks within the “old” structures. The German public is with increasing concern about the prospect of forming a CSU bloc with like-minded people from Austria, Italy and France, and holding joint actions with Hungarian, Polish, and Czech rights. This means that the confrontation between European neo-liberals and globalists and “populists” is growing.

Yes, the next elections to the European Parliament will take place against the backdrop of a sharp increase in the influence of right-wing populists, playing on the feelings of the electorate with statements about “de-bureaucratization of the EU”, limiting the influence of Brussels structures, ending the policy of free migration, establishing relations with the American administration and refusing to support democrats. Probably the immediate result is the departure from the Brussels European Commission of J. Juncker, a compromise figure that no longer satisfies the electorate of the “right-wing populists” by the lack of a clear position on the migration issue.

The growing anti-migration mood, even in Germany, where 65-70% of the population is for tough measures, suggests that the migration problem, which is not fundamentally solved with the current methods of its implementation, creates a systemic crisis in the EU, which is now experiencing large-scale difficulties in the way of joint actions in regional policy, in the development of new technologies and weak attempts to expand the borders of the EU. On the periphery of the EU, in the Baltic countries and South-Western Europe (Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Bulgaria), new social movements are created, based, again, on anti-migrant slogans. The latter – speaks particularly openly about the systemic crisis of the Brussels administration, which sets unrealistic goals and cannot cope with real problems.

Not beyond the horizon – a “continuous array” of a new Europe, in which the principle of “Europe only for its own” leads to the strengthening of isolationism, centrifugal tendencies, as we already see, not only on the periphery of the EU, but also in the territory of strong states, where there is more separatism , so no matter who is chosen now in the EU leadership, he is not interested in international assistance, as it was before. This aggravates the situation in corrupt Middle Eastern and African countries, in which even the middle layers of the population see for themselves the only way out of emigration to Europe.

Most likely, the registration of the European right-populist alliance will take place in the next 2-3 years. These processes may slow down or accelerate, depending on factors such as economic dynamics, policy of harmonization of interests in Brussels. There they begin to come to the conclusion that the main condition for the survival of the EU, at least in its current form, is the nomination of leaders who are able to rally to conclude a meaningful anti-migrant agreement (Orban, Kurtz, Salvini, Seehofer). In this regard, one cannot ignore the potential of Marine Le Pen, extremely popular in the regions of France, which is gradually strengthening its position towards E. Macron, a protege of European liberals and globalists, who is no longer able to justify their hopes and aspirations – simply by virtue of “ephemerality” the movement created for him, the political reputation of a careerist and a “man without ideas,” for whom the chances are becoming less and less with a reduction in the resource base for “bribing” the main groups of French society.

Adam Schöfner


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